Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXUS62 KTBW 140020
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Forecast remains on track requiring no changes. Weak ridge axis
remains over the southern peninsula with mainly light/variable to
S-SW winds locally. Areas of convection continue along/north of
I-4 this evening as well as across parts of S interior/SWFL. A few
additional showers/storms may develop this evening in association
with the southern area resulting from lingering outflow boundary
collisions before waning overnight. Convection looks to redevelop
late tonight into early Thursday morning over the coastal waters,
perhaps meandering ashore across some coastal Nature Coast and
SWFL locations, before the main round of activity associated with
the sea breeze takes shape late morning into early afternoon along
the coast before trekking inland through the afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida into Friday as
a weakening trough drifts south through the southeast states. This
will keep the south to southwest flow across the region with
scattered convection over the waters during the overnight and
morning hours moving onshore and into the interior by late
afternoon each day. The only exception could be across southwest
Florida where the flow will remain light which may allow some of
the showers and thunderstorms to move back toward the coast during
the evening.

Over the weekend the trough will wash out with a more east to
northeast flow setting up across the area. Deep moisture
associated with the trough will move into the region and this
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to
scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day.

Early next week the flow appears to become rather light again and
with plenty of moisture expected to be across the area we`ll
continue to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR expected outside of showers/storms mainly Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Held VCTS/SH mention across terminals for
opening of current cycle while convection looks to continue
diminishing trend, with VRB winds across TPA/PIE/SRQ due to
remnant outflow from waning convection to the east. Convection
currently east of SWFL terminals may influence winds locally over
the next couple hours before VRB winds settle in for the overnight
period. Ridging over the peninsula will favor continued light
winds overnight, turning onshore Thursday morning into afternoon
with the sea breeze, generally 5-10 knots. Main round of
showers/storms likely late morning into afternoon for northern
terminals before shifting inland/east late afternoon/early
evening. While guidance hints at mid-late overnight shower
potential for SWFL terminals, confidence remains low enough for
exclusion currently, with main shower/storm potential mid
afternoon into early evening with W FL sea breeze, followed by
potential for E FL sea breeze activity to push west across S FL
perhaps bringing some impacts near the end of or just past the end
of the current cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Winds will remain out of the south to southwest through Thursday
before shifting to northeast to east over the weekend. Wind speeds
will remain 10 knots or less with slight seas, except in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of showers
and thunderstorms will still be overnight into the morning hours
along the land breeze and in the evening hours as storms push off
the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Ample low-level moisture will remain across the area supporting high
relative humidity values with winds 10 mph or less, except in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns will
remain low for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  93  81  94 /  20  50  10  50
FMY  78  93  77  94 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  78  96  78  97 /  30  50  20  50
SRQ  79  92  78  94 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  75  93  75  95 /  10  50  10  50
SPG  81  90  80  92 /  20  40  10  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming